Our new scientific paper entitled “Why energy models should integrate social and environmental factors: Assessing user needs, omission impacts, and real-word accuracy in the European Union” has been published at Elsevier’s Energy Research & Social Science journal! The publication is produced by Professor Dr. Alexandros Flamos, Diana Süsser, Nick Martin, Dr. Vassilis Stavrakas, Hannes Gaschnig, Laura Talens Peiró, Cristina Madrid-Lopez and Johan Lilliestam, within the context of the European Commission-funded Horizon 2020 SENTINEL project.

The aim of the paper is to explore and illustrate the impact of ignoring such factors by comparing model results to model user needs and real-world observations. Firstly, concrete user needs are identified for better representation of environmental and social factors in energy modelling via interviews, a survey, and a workshop. Secondly, the effects of omitting non-techno-economic factors in modelling by contrasting policy-targeted scenarios with reality are analysed in four EU case study examples.

The results showcase that by neglecting environmental and social factors, models risk generate overly optimistic and potentially misleading results, as for example, by suggesting transition speeds far exceeding any speeds observed, or pathways facing hard-to-overcome resource constraints. As such, modelled energy transition pathways that ignore such factors may be neither desirable nor feasible from an environmental and social perspective, and scenarios may be irrelevant in practice. Finally, the paper examines a sample of recent energy modelling innovations and call for continued and increased efforts for improved approaches that better represent environmental and social factors in energy modelling and increase the relevance of energy models for informing policymaking.

Read and download the full scientific publication for free for the next 20 days here!

For more information about SENTINEL, visit the project’s website!