-
Interdisciplinary modelling in support of people-centred transitions: Forecasting citizen adoption of rooftop PV systems under alternative sociopolitical future-world evolutions
Rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems are central to decentralised solar transitions in Europe, yet their diffusion depends on more than technical potential, technology costs, or the formal design of support schemes. As Member States move from guaranteed remuneration mechanisms towards more market-reflective compensation, rooftop PV adoption increasingly depends on how citizens perceive policy credibility, profitability, social influence, and uncertainty. This article investigates citizen adoption of rooftop PV systems in the Greek residential sector by 2030 under three alternative sociopolitical storylines representing citizen-driven, government-directed, and market-driven future-world evolutions. We operationalise an interdisciplinary modelling framework that sequentially couples sociopolitical storyline development with agent-based…
-
Assessment and good practices identification among NAPs of developing countries
National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) are assuming a central role as a policy framework for adaptation, protecting from climate impacts if they thoroughly respond to risks. We present a comprehensive global review of all 60 NAPs submitted to the UNFCCC by developing country parties as of March 1st, 2025. Through the NAP-Good Practices Review Framework, plans are evaluated across the important dimensions of NAP-Coverage and NAP-Consistency. We find that, on average, NAPs contain three-quarters of the elements defining a good NAP—with higher scores for NAP-Consistency than NAP-Coverage. NAPs cover the factbase on vulnerabilities and risks well, followed by policies, goals, and…
-
Planning alternatives under divergent futures: Linking transformative scenario design with bottom-up modelling and distributional impact assessment to quantify inequalities in electricity affordability
Energy systems are changing as a result of the transition to renewable energy from fossil fuels and the increased deployment and integration of fluctuating renewable energy sources. However, global supply chain challenges, energy crises, and geopolitical conflicts have underlined the need for not only reducing carbon emissions and optimising costs in energy systems but also ensuring energy security and resilience. This adds new dimensions to energy system modelling and to the evaluation of energy system scenarios as an integral part of energy strategy and energy policy development. This study reviews existing energy security and resilience indicators and proposes a decentralisation…
-
Integrating an enhanced diversification metric into energy system models to assess the security and resilience of renewable-based energy systems towards carbon neutrality
Energy systems are changing as a result of the transition to renewable energy from fossil fuels and the increased deployment and integration of fluctuating renewable energy sources. However, global supply chain challenges, energy crises, and geopolitical conflicts have underlined the need for not only reducing carbon emissions and optimising costs in energy systems but also ensuring energy security and resilience. This adds new dimensions to energy system modelling and to the evaluation of energy system scenarios as an integral part of energy strategy and energy policy development. This study reviews existing energy security and resilience indicators and proposes a decentralisation…
-
Evaluating the effectiveness of green recovery measures on sectoral energy transition pathways and employment opportunities towards net zero: Evidence from the Greek National Recovery and Resilience Plan
The extent to which post-COVID green recovery measures can accelerate national progress towards net zero remains insufficiently understood, as most existing studies focus on global or regional scales, provide limited sectoral granularity, or report employment effects only in aggregate terms. This study addresses these gaps by assessing the additionality and sufficiency of Greece’s National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) investments and reforms in shaping energy transition pathways and employment opportunities in the power and residential sectors through 2030 and 2050. Using two open-source, bottom-up modelling frameworks, OSeMOSYS and DREEM, the analysis compares NRRP-supported interventions against baseline trajectories aligned with national…
-
Expanding natural gas infrastructure in Greece: Good practice or missed opportunity of a green and inclusive transition?
The vision of climate neutrality is no longer characterised by a single spatial focus as there is a clear need for collaboration at, and across, different governance levels. This is particularly important as regional and local authorities are given a more active role in implementing energy transitions; when it comes to policymaking, though, their needs are not always considered, and decisions are mainly taken at the national level. Such an example is the Peloponnese region in Greece, where many actors criticise the ongoing construction of a new natural gas distribution network. In this article, we explore if this expansion is…
-
Towards decarbonisation or lock-in to natural gas? A bottom-up modelling analysis of the energy transition ambiguity in the residential sector by 2050
While a green transition in the Greek building sector is considered critical towards a secure and resilient energy system by 2050, national policymaking continues to support schemes and investments on the expansion of the natural gas grid in the mainland, viewing natural gas as a transition fuel, especially in the residential sector. In this context, this article uses a bottom-up high-resolution demand-side model to simulate different transition scenarios in the Greek residential sector by 2050, as these are extracted from the current existing policy planning and political decisions, recent amendments currently under public consultation, and relevant national experts’ feedback. Simulation…
-
Bidirectional soft-linking of a Capacity Expansion Model with a Production Cost Model to evaluate the feasibility of transition pathways towards carbon neutrality in the power sector
Energy models have been a valuable tool in support of well-informed decision-making towards the transition to climate neutrality in the European Union. However, considering the extra levels of detail required when designing a system based on intermittent renewables, modelling approaches in the field often lack the necessary time resolution, or are not open source, raising concerns of transparency and scientific reproducibility. This article addresses this gap by introducing a novel bidirectional soft-linking approach between two open-source energy models to generate long-term scenarios in the power sector and evaluate their feasibility, allowing for the optimisation of investments over a 30-year period…
-
Gender-blind energy efficiency policy-making in Europe: risks and challenges for the private rented sector
Women across Europe are disproportionately vulnerable to energy poverty, a result of pervasive societal gender inequalities, such as lower incomes and unequal care responsibilities, whilst being underrepresented in decision-making spheres. Furthermore, pressures on social housing have seen more low-income families pushed into low quality, costly and precarious housing in the private rented sector (PRS), increasing exposure to energy poverty. Although recently gaining some recognition at the EU-level, gender-just measures to improve energy efficiency and alleviate energy poverty, particularly within the PRS, remain inadequate at all levels of policymaking, with energy policy continuing to be designed in a “gender-blind” manner. However,…
-
Climbing a new hill: a review of Member States’ strategies to meet their energy savings obligation for 2021–2030
The EU and 21 out of 27 Member States achieved their headline 2020 target for energy efficiency in terms of maximum final energy consumption (not to exceed). This was partly due to COVID19. The picture is even more mixed when looking at Member States’ energy savings obligation: 14 Member States met their target of cumulative energy savings over 2014-2020, whereas ten Member States failed, and final data were missing for the three remaining ones (based on Commission’s report). The Fit-for-55 package brought more ambition for the 2030 targets, including for the energy savings obligation, now Article 8 of the Energy…
-
How the COVID-19 pandemic changed stakeholder engagement processes in sustainability research in the long-term
Background The COVID-19 pandemic affected stakeholder engagement in sustainability research projects in many ways. But which effects appear permanent today, after the pandemic ended? Methods To address this, we interviewed researchers and stakeholders and carried out a survey among European sustainability research projects in 2022. Results We find that the pandemic years disrupted stakeholder-based research, also with lasting effects. The forced shift to online modes showed how digital engagement can bring benefits in terms of easier and more efficient stakeholder engagement, but also that important aspects are lost, particularly regarding intensity of collaboration and depth of insights. Whether to go…
-
Least-cost or sustainable? Exploring power sector transition pathways
The 2022 energy crisis augmented the European ambition for RES capacity expansion. However, beyond the issue of “how many” renewables, the research question that remains, is which capacity mixes achieve the emissions reduction, renewable integration, and energy autarky targets in a cost-effective way. This paper tries to answer this inquiry supported by two energy models and one decision support model. The analysis focuses on Greece, as an example country which opted for lignite phase out, turning to temporary heavy reliance on natural gas for power generation. The results indicate that even though from the energy and environmental targets’ perspective, more…