The Open Source energy MOdelling SYStem for GReece (OSeMOSYS-GR) is a country-specific implementation of the OSeMOSYS modelling framework, designed to capture the unique characteristics of the Greek power sector over an extended time horizon (e.g., towards 2050). The model assesses the capacity requirements of different energy technologies in order to identify the most cost-effective and sustainable energy mix. Additionally, it evaluates the environmental impact of different energy production methods, helping to determine optimal strategies for reducing emissions.

Key features

  • System design: The model identifies cost-effective combinations of electricity generation, storage, and conversion technologies. By optimising investment and operational costs over a long-term horizon, it ensures that electricity supply meets demand while minimising overall system expenditures.
  • Diverse technology assessment: OSeMOSYS-GR includes a wide range of technologies, including fossil-fired power plants as well as renewable energy, energy storage, and energy conversion technologies. By evaluating their costs, efficiencies, and deployment potentials under various scenarios, the model provides insights into the most feasible options for the future electricity mix.
  • Long-term energy policy scenarios: The model provides long-term energy supply projections, considering factors such as electricity demand, fuel prices, and technological advancements. It assists in evaluating different pathways, allowing users to test different policy measures and determine their impact when it comes to the energy transition in the power sector.
  • Flexibility analysis: OSeMOSYS-GR evaluates the role of energy storage technologies, such as batteries and pumped hydro, as well as energy conversion technologies, like electrolysers, in balancing supply and demand fluctuations. It assesses how energy storage can integrate variable renewable energy and reduce reliance on fossil-based reserve power.
  • Open access and transparency: Built on the original OSeMOSYS framework, OSeMOSYS-GR is freely accessible for potential users. It promotes transparency in energy planning and replicability by allowing modifications and improvements based on user needs.

A comprehensive illustration of the reference energy system in OSEMOSYS-GR, as it has been developed and currently stands, is depicted in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Reference energy system for the Greek power sector, as it currently stands in OSEMOSYS-GR.

Types of Indicative Applications

National and Regional Energy Planning

OSeMOSYS-GR can be used for national and regional energy planning, focusing on providing long-term energy supply projections. By incorporating energy demand forecasts, resource availability, and technological advancements, the model can identify cost-effective and sustainable energy mixes in different regions.

Climate Change Mitigation and Decarbonisation

OSeMOSYS-GR can be utilised to analyse pathways to reduce carbon emissions and achieve decarbonisation goals. By simulating different climate change mitigation scenarios, the model can identify the impacts of different strategies for transitioning to a low-carbon economy, such as phasing out fossil fuels, integrating renewable energy sources, and implementing carbon capture and storage technologies.

Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience

OSeMOSYS-GR can be used to model energy system resilience under different climate change adaptation scenarios, examining extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and cold spells, droughts, changing wind patterns, and storms. Such scenarios can include various impacts of climate change on key energy system design parameters, like the reduction in capacity factors of specific power generation technologies, shifts in demand patterns, and the increase in the cost of capital. By integrating these impacts into the model, it can assess vulnerabilities and evaluate adaptation strategies like alternative energy supply mixes, diversification of energy technologies and carriers, water-efficient energy generation, decentralised system planning, etc.

Energy Security and Reliability

The model can assess a region’s dependence on energy imports, evaluate diversification strategies, and optimise energy storage and reserve capacity. By simulating supply disruptions, price fluctuations, and geopolitical risks, OSeMOSYS-GR enables users to develop strategies for improving energy reliability, reducing exposure to external shocks, and ensuring a stable and secure energy supply.

Climate-Land-Water-Energy Nexus Assessment

OSeMOSYS-GR will be expanded into a Climate-Land-Energy-Water systems (CLEWs) model to simulate scenarios related to the interdependencies between climate change, land use, water resources, and energy systems. Such scenarios can examine various impacts of climate change on key integrated system design parameters, such as changes in precipitation, energy needs, and changes in agricultural production. The CLEWs model allows for the assessment of the impacts of different integrated strategies for sustainable resource management, ensuring energy security, water efficiency, and climate resilience while balancing competing land-use and water demands.

Sector-coupled Energy Transitions

OSeMOSYS-GR can be further developed to model a variety of sector-coupling applications across multiple sectors. For instance, it can simulate scenarios of electrification in the heating and the transport sectors, by integrating electric vehicles and heat pumps with renewable energy. It can also model power-to-X technologies, such as power-to-gas and power-to-liquids, where excess renewable electricity is converted into hydrogen or synthetic fuels for industrial heating or heavy-duty transport.

Policy Impact Assessment

OSeMOSYS-GR can evaluate the effects of different policies on energy supply and system costs. The model allows for scenario-based analysis to assess the impact of subsidies, feed-in tariffs, renewable energy mandates, carbon taxes, or efficiency standards.

Impact

OSeMOSYS-GR has been developed and applied in the context of the European Commission-funded Horizon 2020 project “ENCLUDE” and the Horizon Europe project “IAM COMPACT”.

Publications

Relevant links

The OSeMOSYS-GR model, consisting of the provided open access dataset and its factsheet, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0); a copy is available here: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.You can find the model in Github and Zenodo.

Contact

For more information about OSeMOSYS-GR please contact: