Reports & Books

The process of decision-making on climate and energy policy is a challenging task, which is affected by an important number of internal and external factors that influence the dynamics of the energy system. It is critical to investigate and understand how a specific policy instrument affects various sectors and to employ model-based scenarios to examine potential environmental and energy-related trends influenced by uncertain dynamics. In this report, we have strived for the development of a comprehensive set of narratives and scenarios that will be used in the upcoming modeling exercises to produce outcomes related to the assessment of the decarbonization…

This deliverable focuses on the final step of the overall SENTINEL stakeholder engagement strategy and aims to (a). present stakeholder feedback on the usefulness of the SENTINEL modelling results for the case studies regarding the improvement of stakeholders’ decision making as well as recommendations for improved integration of model components, and (b). produce a final set of results and lessons learnt after further model application within the case study framework. To meet these objectives, we applied a four-tier participatory multi-method approach consisting of stakeholder interactions in 10 events (workshops, conferences, focus groups, bilateral meetings, etc.), in which SENTINEL modelling teams…

The European Commission (EC)-funded H2020 Sustainable Energy Transitions Laboratory (SENTINEL) project has applied a participatory approach including three steps: i. investigating how to adjust modelling tools based on modelling users' needs and test their applicability in three case studies at three different geographical scales: National (Greece), Regional (Nordic region) and Continental (Europe), ii. engaging experts representing various stakeholder groups to understand the key challenges to reaching climate neutrality and specify the most critical and policy-relevant contextual questions that energy system models should be able to respond to, and iii. involving stakeholders in the model application process to implement further modelling…

Although energy system models have become more complex, it does not necessarily mean that they are better suited to answer the questions, or address the challenges, faced by decision- and policymakers. In this report, we aim to tackle such critical issues and challenges of the European energy transition towards climate neutrality by 2050, with the user-driven updated SENTINEL modelling ensemble. Specifically, we showcase the applicability and usefulness of the SENTINEL modelling suite in the context of three case studies, a. a Continental level case study (European Union, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and some Balkan countries), b. a Regional…

In the transition to a state of net-zero emissions of greenhouse gases, citizens are supposed to play a much larger role, including as self-consumers and participants in energy communities. As a result of this increasingly participatory role of citizens in the energy system the new concept of energy citizenship has emerged in the recent years. Around this term, we can also find emerging trends/ patterns that can relate to: (i.) the active participation in the energy market, such as the concept of prosumerism, smart technologies, etc., (ii.) behavioral attributes of citizens, (iii.) individual lifestyle changes, (iv.) collective initiatives and expressions…

The demand side plays a pivotal role in order to understand the expanse of the whole energy system, especially when one considers the European Union’s (EU) commitment to climate neutrality by 2050, in the context of which, energy demand needs to be reduced substantially. Therefore, the role of policies that support energy efficiency measures and demand-side management practices will be critical; however, the impacts of such policies can only be explored ex-ante using energy demand models. In this context, the energy demand models (EDMs) used in the Sustainable Energy Transitions Laboratory (SENTINEL) project provide yearly and hourly future demand profiles…

Although energy models advance rapidly in terms of technical and techno-economic details, social and political aspects and environmental burdens beyond greenhouse gas emissions are currently underrepresented. However, in light of the European Green Deal and the EU Energy Union Strategy, models must advance in terms of social and environmental considerations to support decision- and policymakers in adequately addressing that environmental burden and to put “citizens at its core” of the energy transition. In this deliverable, we present key user-needs for environmental and social aspects that need to be better represented in energy system models (Section 2), and how we have…

Although energy models advance rapidly in termsof technical and techno-economic details, social and political aspects and environmental burdensbeyond greenhouse gas emissions are currently underrepresented. However, in light of the European Green Deal and the EU Energy Union Strategy, models must advance in terms of social and environmental considerations to support decision-and policymakers in adequately addressing that environmental burdenand to put “citizens at its core” of the energy transition. In this deliverable, we present key user-needs for environmentaland social aspects that need to be better represented in energy system models (Section 2), and how we have developed and adapted the modelling…

While energy system models are important tools supporting decision- and policymakers, they are often monolithic, and, therefore, not particularly versatile and not able to address all types of problems related to the energy transition. Although models have become more complex, it does not necessarily mean that they are better suited to answer the questions asked, and address the challenges faced by decision- and policymakers. To overcome the challenges and limitations of current modelling approaches within the SENTINEL project, we will apply and validate different updated models of the SENTINEL modelling suite in three case studies of different spatial scales. In…

Energy demand globally has been increasing over the last few decades and, in order to achieve climate neutrality in the EU by 2050, the demand for energy needs to be reduced without affecting the comfort of the citizens. Therefore, the role of energy efficiency measures and renewable energy use has become pivotal in energy science. However, designing policies related to the promotion of energy efficiency or usage of renewable energy depends immensely on the evidence/predictions for a set of scenarios up to a certain timeline that can be provided by the energy demand models. In other words, the findings of…

This report discusses the improvements made in the three economic impacts models that are the modeling ensemble of SENTINEL Work Package 5, namely, the European Electricity Market Model (EMMA), the WEGDYN computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and the Business Strategy Assessment Model (BSAM). EMMA is a techno-economic model, developed to simulate the integrated north-western European power system. It models both dispatch of and investment in power plants, minimizing total costs with respect to investment, production, and trade decisions under a large set of technical constraints. WEGDYN belongs to the class of macroeconomic models, which depict the whole economy, separated into…

In the field of Energy Efficiency (EE) investments, plenty project ideas exist of which only a fraction is being financed, mainly either because project developers are not experienced enough in the respective procedures or they do not have the capacity or resources to persuade investors. Investors, on the other hand, lack a set of reliable EE-based criteria for the assessment and identification of the most attractive EE projects. Cost of capital is a key indicator affecting investment decisions, signifying the investors’ desired rate of return at different risk levels. A high cost of capital indicates a high risk associated with…