We are thrilled to announce that our latest research paper, entitled “Towards decarbonisation or lock-in to natural gas? A bottom-up modelling analysis of the energy transition ambiguity in the residential sector by 2050“ is now published at Elsevier’s Energy Conversion and Management Journal. This paper aims to explore pathways for a green and fair energy transition in the Greek residential sector by 2050.
In particular, we use a bottom-up high-resolution demand-side modelling approach, employing and expanding the capabilities of the DREEM model, to simulate different transition scenarios in the Greek residential sector by 2050. Scenario specifications are extracted based on the existing policy planning, the ongoing amendments, and relevant national experts’ feedback.
Key findings of our research:
Decarbonization challenges: Current national policies and renovation rates are insufficient to achieve decarbonization by 2050.
Increased renovation rates: To meet climate goals, annual renovation rates must increase up to 2.5% to achieve decarbonization by 2050 and up to 3.5% to achieve decarbonization by 2040.
Focus on electrification: Transition scenarios emphasising electrification and an early phase-out of natural gas demonstrate lower costs and carbon emissions, offering a more inclusive and resilient path forward.
Our findings quantify and highlight the risks of relying on natural gas as a “transition fuel,” which could lead to missed opportunities—or even worse, a lock-in effect. Overall, this study provides critical and actionable insights to inform the development of national planning initiatives and support policymakers in crafting strategies that align with the overarching objectives of decarbonisation, climate neutrality, and energy security.
You can access and read the full paper here for free for the next 50 days!
